Nber dating


22-Oct-2019 23:48

BOSTON, December 31 -- NBER's Committee on Business Cycle Dating met on December 29 to review data on the recent performance of the U. The Committee deferred identifying a peak in the current U. business cycle until additional data confirm current impressions that such a peak may have occurred during the summer of 1979. Although forecasters are now virtually unanimous in predicting a recession in early 1980,the Committee's judgments in identifying turning points are based only on actual data (not on forecasts).It shows a recession from the quarter following the peak through the quarter of the trough (i.e.the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is).The Committee plans to meet again in March or April.

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Quarters of recession are indicated in grey, and quarters of expansion in white in the figure below.Geoffrey Moore, Center for Inter-national Business Cycle Research; Victor Zarnowitz, University of Chicago; and Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University, who did not attend today's meeting.